Wouldn't be surprised if they firm up some options, maybe not next year though. I would expect the ERs to last a while, oil price dependant.

so maybe the first 8 for replacement then another 6-8 for expansion with ERs retiring by 2022/23 being replaced by 787-9 and 777-8 possibly. when would be the last chance they have to confirm another the next group of options into firm orders? late last year QF it was the last chance they could confirm the first options for the 787. it was two before years the first delivery. Does that mean the last chance to firm for the next options of 787s would be late next year?

Qantas had some slots reserved during the initial rush of orders. That rush has now subsided so I doubt there is much pressure on slots further down the line, after all they have sold a massive 1 787 this year so far. Qantas will probably firm orders when the 787-10 is closer, after a comparison with the A350. They may also decide to take up the remaining A380s, depending on CASAs stance on longer ETOPS ops.

Or they could be replaced by 747-8s, someone just placed an order for 4.

Sadly those 4 announced orders are for freighters according to CNBC, but at least it keeps the line moving.

I've read in a few different places that Qantas would be revisiting the 747-8 once project ozark's targets were reached. Wishful thinking perhaps.

Could Qantas ever order B747-8F to replace the -400F?

Qantas don't own any B744Fs they wet lease them off Atlas Air, so I doubt that they will order any large freighters in the near future.

Oh yeah I forgot about that!

I think you will find that QF will NOT buy any more 4 engine long range aircraft again. The rest of the 380's will not happen and neither will 747-8's. look at what will be available soon, 787-10, 777-8, long range which it has been quoted will do SYD to Chicago easily, and would also do PER/LHR, etc, etc.

I expect they will, simply because two engines is not viable on some of their routes, such as South Africa and Chile etc. Qantas does not have the luxury other airlines experience of getting approval for ETOPS beyond 180. As an example, look at SYD-JNB, ETOPS180 comes with a four hour penalty as VA discovered, which makes it not viable.

The range quotes you often see in the press don't take into account the regulations Qantas is forced to operate under, so they will never happen under QF ops.