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-   -   Qantas Cuts Capacity in Response to Oil Prices (http://www.yssyforum.net/board/showthread.php?t=747)

Deni G 28th May 2008 03:15 PM

Qantas Cuts Capacity in Response to Oil Prices
 
Sorry only version of press release I could find.

Source asx.com.au

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2008052...31g5wnckkp.pdf

Sarah C 28th May 2008 03:20 PM

This big news out of that is:
- Accelerating retirement of the 743 to December - not surprising
- Retiring one 737 (734 I believe)
- Grounding two 767 and one JQ 320 (wonder which two they will ground)
- Cancelling delivering of an A321.

Some big decisions made given the price of fuel

Michael Morrison 28th May 2008 03:28 PM

JQ axe ADL-MCY, BNE-HBA and SYD-PPP as well as reduce AVV/ADL/CNS flying

QF axe MEL-AYQ and SYD-OOL and reduce SYD-AYQ

Rhys Xanthis 28th May 2008 03:37 PM

wow, i must say i wasnt expecting anything as serious as grounding to 767's and canning an a321 order, ground a320...surprising.

not so surprising is the exit from sydney-ool, but it makes it that much harder for pax travelling via syd to ool from per...re check ins make me angry:mad:

edit: i bet virgin is grinning from ear to ear...e-jets are ready to shine in a BIG way.

edit2: could we perhaps see some different routing arrangements for aircraft (744) going to europe? perhaps terminating at SIN, getting some a333's pronto?
perhaps qf axe lax-jfk route?
rethink its syd-scl route?

Chris Tully 28th May 2008 03:40 PM

Media Release:
Quote:

QANTAS CUTS CAPACITY IN RESPONSE TO FUEL PRICES


SYDNEY, 28 May 2008: The Qantas Group today responded to continuing high fuel prices by announcing a range of cost saving measures including the cancellation of five per cent of Available Seat Kilometres (ASKs) – the equivalent of grounding six aircraft.

The Chief Executive Officer of Qantas, Mr Geoff Dixon, said Qantas’ fuel bill would increase by more than $2 billion in 2008/09, representing around
35 per cent of the company’s total expenditure.

“The fact is that fuel prices are something we have no control over, so we have to look harder at areas where we do have control,” Mr Dixon said.

“Despite our fuel hedging strategy, fuel surcharges, two separate
across-the-board fare increases and a recruitment freeze, we are not bridging the widening gap between the actual increase in the cost of fuel and the amount we offset.”

Mr Dixon said the Qantas Group would manage the reduction in ASKs by:

retiring one B737 aircraft;
grounding two B767 aircraft and one Jetstar A320 aircraft;
cancelling the delivery of one Jetstar A321 aircraft;
accelerating the retirement of its four B747-300 aircraft, currently
operating trans-continental services to Perth, by December; and
adjusting the flying patterns of other aircraft, including reducing the
utilisation of the B747-400 fleet.

“This will enable us to make significant changes to domestic and
international flying for both Qantas and Jetstar. In some cases, this will involve pulling off routes entirely. In other cases, we will scale back frequencies and capacity.”

In the domestic market, Mr Dixon said:

Qantas would exit its Gold Coast-Sydney and Ayers Rock-Melbourne routes
and reduce Ayers Rock-Sydney services from August;
Jetstar would exit its Sydney-Whitsunday Coast, Adelaide-Sunshine Coast,
and Brisbane-Hobart routes from July; and
Jetstar would reduce services on some Adelaide, Avalon and Cairns routes
by August.

“Wherever possible, we have tried to minimise the overall impact of the changes. For example, Jetstar will continue to offer more than 140 return services to the Gold Coast each week, including up to 10 services a day on the Sydney-Gold Coast route.

“The Qantas Group, through Jetstar, remains the largest carrier in and out of the Gold Coast.”

Mr Dixon said Qantas was finalising details of its international network restructure, including capacity adjustments and market exits, and would announce these within the next week.

“Qantas remains a fundamentally strong company, with a good balance sheet and a commitment to investment that includes a $35 billion order for aircraft,” Mr Dixon said.

“We must make these hard decisions now, however, if we are to ensure the ongoing strength of Qantas, preserve the jobs of the vast majority of our current workforce, and position ourselves for growth when the trading environment improves.”

He said that the magnitude of the changes would require a reduction in staff numbers.

“This week we will launch an accelerated leave program to mitigate the requirement for redundancies, but it is inevitable that a reduction in staff numbers will be necessary in selected parts of our business,” Mr Dixon said.

“As always, we will communicate with our people. In the first instance, redundancies will be carried out on a voluntary basis.”

Mr Dixon said that in addition:

the pay for all of the company’s senior executive group would be frozen;
and
the normal July pay review for the remaining 1,000 executives would be
deferred.

He said passengers affected by the schedule changes would be contacted to discuss alternative arrangements.

Michael Morrison 28th May 2008 03:43 PM

Any bets JQ will drop some Japan routes with the announcements next week?

perhaps free up a 332 to replace QF on MNL/HNL totally or some NRT services from say PER?

Axing of SYD-CHC (mostly LCC's at CHC these days?)

Andrew P 28th May 2008 04:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhys Xanthis (Post 5860)
edit: i bet virgin is grinning from ear to ear...e-jets are ready to shine in a BIG way.

guess they are in a much pain as QF is in with the fuel prices, so will be interesting if they follow along a similar vain.

Banjo

Rhys Xanthis 28th May 2008 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Morrison (Post 5863)
Any bets JQ will drop some Japan routes with the announcements next week?

perhaps free up a 332 to replace QF on MNL/HNL totally or some NRT services from say PER?

Axing of SYD-CHC (mostly LCC's at CHC these days?)

well nrt services are operated by 767 from perth now, so its well possible.

i wonder how service loads to singapore are going? 3 daily with singapore, soon to be 2 with tg, 2 x daily qf with a 3rd via denpasar/jakarta some days. although i guess its used for passage to europe mostly.

perhaps we see a 744 going 1 x daily on this route in the future? although the a333's are on pretty weird rotations i think (from singapore and hkong)

Greg F 28th May 2008 05:09 PM

DJ would be feeling the exact pain as the QF group.

The E-Jets are no more economical than a 737 or A320, if infact I would have thought worse.

also on the Tiger front I read somewhere with a big boss saying ' Tiger Australia is traveling reasonably well ' which isn't that convincing...

Seems that the Oil price issue is hurting Aussie Airlines badly. :(:(

Brenden S 28th May 2008 05:28 PM

Oil is hurting everyone around the world, that is what you pay with china and India consuming more.

Montague S 28th May 2008 05:32 PM

can anyone say the word merger?

Kain C 28th May 2008 05:37 PM

Quote:

Jetstar would exit its Sydney-Whitsunday Coast, Adelaide-Sunshine Coast, and Brisbane-Hobart routes from July
How ridiculous!!! JQ only said the other week they were looking at adding new HBA-OOL services as demand from HBA-South East Queensland was booming! The demand obviously is booming as DJ had previously added additional 737 services on top of their existing daily HBA-BNE flight! Hopefully DJ will go up to double daily now.

Greg F 28th May 2008 05:43 PM

Open your eyes... look around the world... its happening everywhere and at a rather rapid pace too... reduce flights and A/C and fly at full capacity on what you have.

I cant see why DJ wont do a 'double daily' as you say...
Their share prices a rocketing up!!! they are going great!!! (slight sarcasm :p)
Its funny that REX is making more $ per quarter than DJ does in a year..

DJ will follow suit, they will just do it in the way they always do,
Let QF or JQ do it first, cop the media bashing, then they sneakily do it and nobody notices...

Michael Morrison 28th May 2008 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg F (Post 5881)
Their share prices a rocketing up!!! they are going great!!! (slight sarcasm :p)
Its funny that REX is making more $ per quarter than DJ does in a year..

...

According to Rex that is.

virgin's last profit guidance was to have profit of around $140M for the full year....

Rex's latest announcement was for a profit of $8.2m for the 3rd quarter with full year profit expected to be around $23M....

Now how on earth is $23M from Rex in year more than Virgin and $140M?????

Marty H 28th May 2008 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Montague S (Post 5874)
can anyone say the word merger?

If that was the case what likely merge could take place?

Rhys Xanthis 28th May 2008 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marty H (Post 5885)
If that was the case what likely merge could take place?

perhaps with singapore? its been bandied about for some time (but i personally highly doubt it).

i doubt any merger will be done at all.

Michael Cleary 28th May 2008 07:59 PM

All prices are going up, not just within AUS.

I am going to Zurich in October and made the Booking (Points Redemption) back in February. At that time the Taxes were AUD 482.88 - and a look now shows the Taxes to be AUD 547.18 for a Booking made today - and will probably be higher by the time that I depart.

These Oil Prices are causing belt tightening everywhere.

For info, a SYD-ZRH-SYD return, departing SYD 04/10/08 returning 04/11/08 on SQ is AUD 1590.00 + 547.18 Taxes = AUD 2137.18 - the Taxes accounting for 25% of the Total. Not surprisingly I guess, but to depart on SQ222 (A380) on that date adds AUD 200 to the fare.

Jason Carruthers 28th May 2008 08:03 PM

It's very odd JQ are dropping BNE-HBA meanwhile keeping it's 4x weekly BNE-LST rotation. I would have expected LST or both to go.

IIRC Isn't BNE-LST Subsidised?



Jason

Ian Garton 28th May 2008 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason Carruthers (Post 5893)
It's very odd JQ are dropping BNE-HBA meanwhile keeping it's 4x weekly BNE-LST rotation. I would have expected LST or both to go.

I find this one surprising too. Having flown JQ on this route a few times the flights have always been pretty full. ACARS load reports for the route seem consistantly good too.

It would have surprised me less if JQ dropped the BNE-DRW nightly instead.

Tom Lohdan 28th May 2008 08:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Cleary (Post 5892)
I am going to Zurich in October and made the Booking (Points Redemption) back in February. At that time the Taxes were AUD 482.88 - and a look now shows the Taxes to be AUD 547.18 for a Booking made today - and will probably be higher by the time that I depart.

Depends on the Airline to how they charge you with taxes.

Last month I did a weekend MEL-LAX-PHL-SFO-MEL cost me $62US in taxes on a reward ticket.

Which is weird, because when I took a friend to LAX on reward in December it cost $72US in taxes.

I am 1K with United so many fee's are removed.

Details: MEL on Saturday, 11 hours in LA, overnight flight to Philly, 11 hours, evening flight from PHL with a connection in SFO to MEL via SYD, and rocked up to work by 11am. Not Hotels or showers, amazing what you do in a bathroom of an aircraft :eek: No checkin luggage either.

Lukas M 28th May 2008 09:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greg F (Post 5870)
Also on the Tiger front I read somewhere with a big boss saying ' Tiger Australia is traveling reasonably well ' which isn't that convincing...

or when he goes
"We are not planning to raise fare prices across the board"" so Basically saying "Were commiting suicide"

Stuart Trevena 28th May 2008 11:08 PM

Hi All,

So why aren't JQ axing the Perth-Melb (Tulla) flight?

It leaves nearly the same time as the QF Flight?

If they must keep that flight, at least ops it Avalon instead of having a duplicate flight.

Stuart

Grant Smith 29th May 2008 12:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukas Mahoney (Post 5907)
or when he goes
"We are not planning to raise fare prices across the board"" so Basically saying "Were commiting suicide"

Yes Lukas, because you are an aviation finance guru :rolleyes:

FYI: It's we're as in we are, not were - your above comment implies that Tiger was / had been (somehow) committing suicide...

Andrew P 29th May 2008 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Michael Morrison (Post 5863)
perhaps free up a 332 to replace QF on MNL/HNL totally or some NRT services from say PER?

Axing of SYD-CHC (mostly LCC's at CHC these days?)

then in today's SMH

Qantas chief reaches for the knife

amid speculation it could look to cut services on routes such as Manila, Honolulu and even some trans-Tasman services.

wonder if this Board is the source of the writer speculation???

Banjo

Sarah C 29th May 2008 07:40 AM

I think the writer is spot on. I wonder how the loads are for Manila, they certainly are not full. Honolulu just increased service by one per week so that may go back (due to grounding two 767). I also think Japan is on the cutting block too- I say it would be first to go

Lukas M 29th May 2008 08:09 AM

I think we might see those 9 Daily AVV-SYD services cut to at least 7

Steve Jones 29th May 2008 08:18 AM

Lots of empty seats on SYD-CBR too to keep up the frequency (esp as QF have added more 737s to compete with the Ejets), but I guess QF won't cut services (or downgrade to Dash 8s on some services) unless Virgin reduce...

Lukas M 29th May 2008 08:26 AM

Didn't that A321 that was cancelled have a bad airframe???, or a not healthy airframe. Apparently its not in the best of conditions

Michael Morrison 29th May 2008 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukas Mahoney (Post 5926)
Didn't that A321 that was cancelled have a bad airframe???, or a not healthy airframe?

Thats what they are saying on PPRUNE (are you flyer-18 737 over there?)

How many more 738's are due this year? I guess if they are coming on more 734's are to be retired?

QF have also wanted to get out of OOL for a while - so high oil prices are a good way to finally be done with that market.

Andrew M 29th May 2008 09:06 AM

Expect cuts to Japan, Honolulu in my opinion

Greg F 29th May 2008 09:12 AM

(A321's - JQ)

I heard that there were contractual issues between JQ/QF and Spirit Airlines, with the first two taking too long to be delivered and a lot of money needing to be spent on them to get them up to scratch, and therefore JQ opting out of the contract for the last Aircraft......

Brian Wilkes 29th May 2008 11:37 AM

Should retire the 734's and 743's A.S.A.P and convert 4 older 744's into BCF'S should save them some lease money on Atlas planes as well.

Stop growing Jetstar at such a high rate! Which is killing Qantas!

Nigel C 29th May 2008 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukas Mahoney (Post 5924)
I think we might see those 9 Daily AVV-SYD services cut to at least 7


How do you surmise that? Inside info, or just a guess?

BradR 29th May 2008 12:26 PM

Quote:

Stop growing Jetstar at such a high rate! Which is killing Qantas!
How do you figure that? Without the lower cost structure built into JQ, QF would be really struggling and would have had to move out of nearly all leisure routes. JQ has enabled them to remain on these routes as well as putting competitive pressure on DJ.

Even if you look at the routes QF mainline domestic announced they were withdrawing from yesterday you would have to say they really should have been JQ routes all along. SYD-OOL and MEL-AYQ are leisure routes and really do not support a full-service carrier anymore.

Brad

Michael Mak 29th May 2008 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nigel C (Post 5949)
How do you surmise that? Inside info, or just a guess?

Slightly OT, JQ626 AVV-SYD was cut for about 2 months last year. I was booked on this flight but JQ rebooked the the earlier flight JQ624.

Greg F 29th May 2008 01:29 PM

Seems that Virgin Blue are about to follow suit and reduce services according to the Sydney Morning Herald.
Bit of a radical change as everybody's massive plans for rapid expansion seem to have been put on hold for the moment.

And you know who you are, im not bashing DJ, this would be a good move for them too.

Quote:

Virgin set to axe routes

Virgin Blue is expected to follow Qantas's lead and announce cuts to its less profitable routes as soon as next week.

The airline has a "strategic review meeting'' scheduled for next week, where the key item of discussion will be the airline's soaring fuel bill.

After Qantas and its low-cost offshoot Jetstar yesterday announced plans to cut 5% of their domestic and international capacity from July, it is expected Virgin Blue will follow suit and cut flights on routes where it is struggling to turn a profit.

Virgin Blue spokeswoman Heather Jeffery declined to comment on Virgin Blue's plans but hinted the airline could take drastic steps to cut its fuel bill.

"We've said before no airline model can remain profitable with jet fuel at $US170 a barrel. Airlines can't continue to absorb fuel costs at these levels,'' said Ms Jeffery.

Qantas-Jetstar's reduction in services on low-yielding leisure routes - such as Ayers Rock, the Gold Coast and Hobart - will allow Virgin Blue to reduce capacity and still maintain its 30-odd per cent share of the domestic market. It is the first time since the collapse of Ansett in 2001, that the Australian domestic aviation market has contracted.

Shares in Virgin Blue touched a new all-time low of 70 cents this morning, and have now fallen 72% over the past year. Qantas shares were down 1.7% at $3.39.

The fall in Virgin Blue's share price has been more dramatic than Qantas's, given the low-cost carrier has less of its fuel hedged than its full-service rival.

Another disadvantage Virgin Blue has, is its higher exposure to price sensitive passengers. Qantas's dominance of the corporate and government travel market means a higher percentage of its passengers can absorb higher ticket prices and fuel surcharge rises.

This is one reason why Virgin Blue has been keen to attract more corporate passengers in recent years, through the introduction of a frequent flyer program, lounges and more recently premium economy seats on its 737 aircraft.

Sydney Morning Herald

Chris Tully 29th May 2008 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lukas
Didn't that A321 that was cancelled have a bad airframe???, or a not healthy airframe. Apparently its not in the best of conditions

Totally false. Nothing to do with the aircraft.

HNL is a good performer for QF. If anything, BOM would be the worst performer. Certainly low yielding.

Adrian C 29th May 2008 07:20 PM

What QF is doing and what DJ is about to do comes straight from 'Airline Profits for Dummies'.

Where's all the money made in Australia? Simple - Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane.

What have we seen a proliferation of in recent years? Hub bypassing, those hubs being the ones listed above. Now that's all very well when the oil price is favourable, but when it starts to bite you're left hauling a lot of empty seats at the back of a 767 around the Golden Triangle, and at the end of the day you give them away to fill the plane.

Need to save some dough? Simple. Cut your hub bypassing, your flights to Avalon, your services from Timbuktu direct to Brisbane or Mackay. People want to fly from Hobart to Brisbane? Put 'em on a flight to Melbourne, then connect to Brisbane? Keeps the load factors high on Tassie-Melbourne flights and you can raise the fares without risking not having enough punters to fill them. Those same punters are then paying a realistic fare on the Melbourne-Brisbane leg, and the backpackers who only pay $69 to get to Brisbane can go back to catching the freaking bus.

The QF decision to get out of the Gold Coast smells more like "whatcha gonna do about it?" than anything to do with cost cutting. Force the suits onto Jetstar and still get your slice of the market because there's no other full-fare carrier to take their business. It's the sort of calls you can make when you're the only full-service airline in the market. If the business lobby on the Gold Coast want more legroom that badly, they can catch a flight out of Brisbane.

I heard a prediction today that oil might ultimately crack $200 a barrel. If that happens, we might be studying The Flintstones' approach to public transport. :D

Grant Smith 30th May 2008 05:27 AM

From this morning's Australian...

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Australian - Steve Creedy
QANTAS will accelerate its Sustainable Future restructuring program and could give a greater proportion of its flying to Jetstar as part of ongoing changes as it grapples with spiralling oil prices.

The carrier made front page news yesterday when it announced it would ground planes, withdraw from poorly performing routes, axe jobs and freeze executive salaries in response to the record cost of jet fuel.

Although the airline's extensive hedging means the high fuel prices are not expected to affect this financial year's record profit of about $1.4 billion, more expensive hedging in 2008-09 means fuel will cost it an extra $2 billion in 2008-2009.

The Qantas move to reduce capacity by 5 per cent was welcomed by financial analysts but has met with suspicion by unions.

It will be achieved by grounding seven Qantas mainline aircraft and one Jetstar A320 as well as cancelling a Jetstar A321 order.

Qantas and Jetstar are also canning five underperforming routes and reducing services on others. The routes, which were marginally profitable at lower fuel prices, have become unviable at current costs.

Next week, the group will also announce reductions to its international services, with analysts predicting mainline Japanese routes are among the most vulnerable.

But Qantas chief executive Geoff Dixon made it clear this week that continuing high fuel prices meant the airline still had major changes to make.

"We've got a Sustainable Future program, as you know," he said. "We'll ramp that up more, we'll just have to push the envelope in every area.

"I mean, we're not the only airline doing this, of course.

"We've probably moved more quickly than others and that's been part of the reason of our success.

"Our big aim on this - because we've got a strong balance sheet and we're a strong airline, although we do need to meet our commitments - is that we want to be very strong and be able to grow again when the business changes.

"Now if the oil prices are here forever, that means we have to continue to change our model.

"We'll probably see more of Jetstar, but not necessarily at the expense of Qantas."

While unions decried the Qantas announcement as an industrial ploy, analysts welcomed it as a positive for the airline.

"Management is aggressively positioning the business to overcome unprecedented fuel costs before profit is impacted," JPMorgan analysts Matthew Crowe and Russell Crichton-Browne said in a note.

"This has not always been the case for Qantas.

"We expect the capacity cuts to be positives for load factors and yields, especially in the domestic market."

The analysts said the Qantas fiscal 2009 fuel guidance reflected current spot prices and implied a crude price of $US130 a barrel, with a refining margin of $US30 at a US95c exchange rate.

"We do not expect the current spot jet fuel price to be maintained in financial year 2009," the analysts said.

Despite the approval by analysts, unions yesterday attacked the Qantas cuts as an industrial strategy. Qantas is attempting to keep all its unions to a 3 per cent pay increase and is in dispute with its engineers, who want a 5 per cent rise. Its 3 per cent pay offer to Transport Workers Union members looks set to receive a similar rebuff.

WU national secretary Tony Sheldon yesterday described the capacity cutback announcement as industrial ambush.

"It reeks of industrial espionage," he said. "Qantas needs to be honest about what it is up to."

But Mr Dixon rejected the union claims. "It's total bull****," he said. "We didn't plan the escalation of oil at this time."

I particularly enjoyed the Mr Dixon's response... It's about time he started calling a spade a spade :D

Adam P. 30th May 2008 05:47 AM

Morning Granny, doncha love shiftwork!

Adrian:
Quote:

I heard a prediction today that oil might ultimately crack $200 a barrel
A mate of mine was asked in an interview for the QF graduate program about two years ago "what would you do if oil cracked $100 a barrel". His response was something similar to what you see airlines doing now - schedule cutbacks to increase load factors on the remaining flights so fares could be increased to compensate.

Oil will crack $200 a barrel sooner rather than later. Ultimately it will become unavailable.... not for a little while yet though.


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