Adam, I can give you some personal experience. I have travelled with JQ on plenty of times without any issues. The rate of cancelled flights across JQ, DJ and QF is quite low so you would be unlucky for an aircraft to go u/s.
In saying that, travelling first thing in the morning is probably better. Either the aircraft you will be travelling on will be operating its first sector of the day, or the second at worst. An aircraft going u/s is more likely to impact operations for the rest of the day if they can't get a replacement quickly.
I think if you are really concerned about it, go with the QF option.
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