Nothing up AJs sleeve, Dennis.
There are currently 4 x 789s based in BNE. Two operate the daily QF15/16 BNE - LAX - BNE which continues to JFK as QF11/12. The third is the once per week BNE - HKG - BNE which then operates QF127/128 HKG - SYD - HKG on the other 6 days of the week. The fourth 789 operates QF55/56 BNE - LAX - BNE 3 days pw. This flight will cease when the 3 pw flights to SFO commence.
Therefore, when the new US services are in place the four BNE based 789s will operate the daily QF15/16 and the three pw to SFO and four pw to ORD.
Three new 789s are due for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2019. Two will be used to operate the daily QF73/74 SYD - SFO - SYD and the third will be used for MEL - HKG - MEL until 29/3/20 when the 789 will transfer to QF127/128 SYD - HKG - SYD to replace the seasonal A380 services to HKG. There will be 11 789s operating by the end of 2019.
To operate daily services on QF27/28 SYD - SCL - SYD QANTAS will need at least another 789, and two if they don't juggle timings of the SFO or HKG 789 services. Otherwise they will need two 789s for SCL. In the Media Release for the 789 SFO services QANTAS didn't publish the timings of the flights, whereas in the more recent release for SCL they did.
Also, QANTAS published the following in both the SFO and SCL media releases:
Quote:
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QANTAS currently has eight 787-9s in its fleet, with a further six arriving from October 2019, bringing the total fleet of Dreamliners to 14 in the second half of 2020.
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As they are saying that they will have 14 789s
"in the second half of 2020" and not by the end of 2020, I presume that the 12th aircraft will be delivered in time to operate the SCL flights.
I guess that this is a very long winded way of saying that I agree with you Dennis, that the delivery of 789 number 12 will precede the commencement of 789 flights to SCL. The only other option that I can see is if the 789 is taken off the HKG service.
Then there are aircraft numbers 13 & 14 which I presume will operate to JNB. Not sure about HND services but I heard that QANTAS was trying to upgrade them to A380s if allowed by the airport. Also, that QANTAS maybe going to order another four 789s to be announced on 22 August, 2019.