QF - The Next Generation
 

Now with QF confirming B787 orders. what's next ?


The oldest B717 (NXI) first flew in 1999 whist the oldest F100 (NHO) first flew in 1990.

The pure economics of operating these aircraft as well as the need for business class class seats will see the replacement of these aircraft. Probably sooner than later.

How to replace the QLink regional jets ?

Was talking about this very thing on the ramp the other night Greg whilst I was working on another 717 in Sydney. Qantas did look at the Bombardier CS100 apparently for our Qlink operations on the East Coast but word is that they are happy to hold onto the 717 until at least 2019. But like anything I guess could change.

I would imagine quite a few operators are looking at similar plans, such as HA etc, economics are much tighter when you have to buy a new plane vs getting someone else's reject for cheap.

The extra 717's are just a cheap quick fix to add capacity.

Seeing as they are the last 2 717's left in the world for lease.

No doubt something will replace them. Think the C Series or the new Embraer E-Jet as probably the front runners.

The F100's on the otherhand will probably stay in WA for a while as their cheap aquisition cost suits the low utilisation flying for the FIFO markets in WA.

The long term solution will be driven by economics.

Ie

* Running costs (AirNZ saves 20% fuel where B787 vs B777 on same run)
* Serviceability (Looking at QFSouce a B717 goes u/s on average once a week)
* Bums on Seats (loosing highly profitable business class to rivals)

I would say that most B717 long term operators are facing the same problem. eg: Delta

B717 u/s is closer to 4-5 days a week at the moment.

Especially on the East Coast.

I think this was talked about when Qantas went to Seattle for Boeing catch up in 2013. I recall seeing their deliberations in an investor update. However, failing my finding that particular update, this article might address some of your queries.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...ptions-391482/

In short, mentions as potential 717 replacements:

737-7 MAX
A319neo
C Series
Embraer

Good update on the market for the 100+ seat market here although it is approaching a year old:

http://leehamnews.com/2014/10/12/***...9-seat-sector/

As for A330-300 replacement aircraft the 787-10 would be best fit for most Asia/Oceania destinations. An all Boeing international fleet which looks like where it's heading in the medium to long term will help decrease maintence costs I would think would be perfect for commonality.

B777-9/8X, A380 replacement (A380neo possible if it is available by then, but unlikely) A380 replacement from 2023-2025

B787-9, B747 replacement and growth in US, Dubai, Europe

B787-9/10, A330-300 replacement from 2021-2023 approx and future growth in Asia/Oceania

What will be the A330-200 replacement aircraft though? B787-8?

Also for the B737-800 replacement aircraft?

Does Qantas transfer the some a320neo orders to replace B737-8 but then have to retrain Qantas short haul pilots but then decrease maintence costs and other benefits by having Qantas and Jetstar both using A320neos. Or does Qantas order B737MAX and A320neo for Jetstar and not have to retrain. I think having QF and JQ having both A320neos is the best option in the long term.

Are the Qantas Groups A320neo order delivery from FY17 too FY22?

I think 2023-2025 is too early to be replacing the A380's, considering the youngest one would only be 14 years old. And you never know they might exercise those 8 postponed orders to replace the older A380's and 744ERS.