747-8 Article
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This piece was co-written by my colleague in S. Africa and posted here for you guys/gals to read.
Apologies for the length, its quite extensive.
Moderators - feel free to edit/shorten as you see necessary.
Hope you enjoy!
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747-8: It’s A Big Idea
…Whose Time Has Come. Again.
Unusually, the first stretched derivative of the 747 will be the 747-8F, which began assembly in mid-August this year. While there is nothing set in stone that suggests a passenger variant “must” come first, the fact the 747-8F will emerge before its passenger counterpart points largely to its success in the marketplace since its launch. Equally, the 747-8I is not just another big quad for the sake of the Boeing portfolio - its merits have been widely underrated, in part by the hype of the A380 and the formidable 777 family.
Critics on various websites and forums have suggested Boeing terminate the 747-8I, given the sole order from Lufthansa, while conveniently overlooking the equally lucrative VIP sales that the airplane has notched up. Furthermore, the pressure on Airbus for pricing on its A380 with a rival-of-sorts means that by default, and relatively inexpensively, Boeing has an airplane to ebb away at the 400-500 seat arena.
“One of the fundamental differences between the 747-8I and the A380 as aircraft programmes is that the former is of evolutionary design while the latter’s is revolutionary, in size if not in technology. In a traditional industry like aerospace manufacturing, which is littered with casualties from the Spruce Goose to Concorde, the case for revolutionary change is far from proven.
As Airbus found out with the over-sized and unwanted A380F, there is just no market for an aircraft offering double the freighter capacity of the DC-10-30F. Air freight doesn’t work that way, and only the reluctance of the first A380 operators to focus on quality rather than quantity is sparing Airbus the extra embarrassment of half-empty passenger A380s flying half-way around the world too,” says Arran Aerospace Managing Director, Doug McVitie.
Perhaps one of the most vocal airlines displaying interest, and criticism, for the new 747-8 Intercontinental has been Dubai-based Emirates, currently the biggest single customer for the A380. Emirates has long been seen as a leading candidate to order the 747-8I.
Emirates seem to be indicating a need for a 50-ton payload capable 747-8I that can seat 400 passengers and fly a range of around 8,300nm. For any person following the 747 programme closely it becomes very evident that Emirates certainly has a sincere interest in the new 747-8, but just not enough, yet, to finally sign a firm order for the model.
Boeing currently displays the 747-8I capability as a 45-ton payload airplane, capable of flying 467 passengers 8,000nm in a Boeing ruled tri-class layout.
Since Emirates SkyCargo ordered the 747-8F, the airline has both praised and criticized the 747-8I variant. A brief history report of Emirates’ involvement in the 747-8I has been highlighted below:
On 29th January 2007, Emirates president Tim Clark remarked that the airline were going to try convince Boeing to build the original 74.2m stretched version as that model offered a range capable of excess 8,300nm with more than 400 passengers in a Boeing ruled tri-class seating. Click here.
On 6th November 2007, Boeing confirmed firm design freeze for the 747-8I.
On 12th November 2007, there was much anticipation at the 10th Dubai Air Show that Emirates intended to ink a 747-8I deal. Everyone was disappointed. Tim Clark acknowledged that the 747-8 was still being eyed at Emirates, and that by no means was it off their radar, but rather it was “just pushed back a bit” while awaiting flight test data from the GEnx-powered 787.
Boeing Commercial Airplane President and CEO Scott Carson, remarked that “Boeing and GE are working hard to meet the Emirates range/payload requirement with both engine and aircraft configuration improvements and that we’re extremely close and deep in discussions.” Boeing indeed was “competing aggressively” according to Carson to sell the new 747 to Emirates.
“When you look at an airline like Emirates that’s got a big 777 fleet, [and] a big A380 fleet, there’s got to be some room in a fleet like that for a 747-8 size,” said Boeing’s VP Marketing, Randy Tinseth.
“And when you have the commonality with the 747-8 Freighter, it makes the economics work even better,” he added.
Lufthansa is poised to take delivery of its first 747-8I in late 2010, flying alongside its larger A380 fleet companion.
It reaffirms that it was not a case of operating one or the other, but rather both!
Despite the strike that has hit both production and deliveries of all 7-series airplanes, the German carrier is confident in both its purchase of the 747-8I and remains committed to taking delivery.
“Lufthansa has been working very closely with its partner Boeing and is looking forward to the delivery of the 747-8 in 2010. At present, Lufthansa has no information about a delay of delivery,“ a spokeswoman for the airline said.
Moreover, the airline said that “at the moment, we’re not planning to order the 787 Dreamliner or the Airbus A350XWB,”.
Comparisons with the A380 are nothing new, yet the big Airbus still draws plenty of critics - not just for its long term potential in a contracting marketplace, but also because of Airbus’ errors in the programme from the outset.
Tinseth states that “we still believe there’s a market for big airplanes. It’s just not as big as [Airbus] thinks it is,“.
“On the A380……Slow sales, heavy price discounting, production delays, sizeable cost increases and costly recompense to customers for delivery delays are only part of the problem for Airbus and there will likely now need to be a strategic rethink by the airplane maker for long term A380 sales forecasts. Clearly the expectation that Airbus had three years ago will need to be downwardly adjusted.
Given the disappointing order backlog of the program at this stage, the now much weakened state of the global airline industry, ongoing problems Airbus has in getting this program into full scale production plus a break even point that may be as high as 600+ aircraft financial viability for this program must remain a distant dream.
Airbus wisely dropped the original intention for a freighter version of the A380 and while it may at some point choose to push this program forward again I do not consider the market will be ready for a freighter version of this plane for very many years,” says Howard Wheeldon.
In the past, other’s have been highly scathing of Airbus’ decision to plough untold billions into the A380. For Boeing, seeing that criticism all but justifies their decision to abandon the 747-500X/-600X project despite the high level of interest it had, albeit with no customers committing to it.
“It’s probably the single biggest mistake in aviation history. Even if the development program weren’t technically botched, you still have the problem that it’s just the wrong plane,” said Teal Groups Richard Aboulafia.
With the 747-400 fleet looking to be replaced, Lufthansa saw the 747-8I as a great fit in its fleet requirements- particularly since it didn’t want to “misuse” the A380 on 747 mission profiles.
“We needed an aircraft for our fleet to fill the gap between the A340-600 with about 310 seats, the 747-400 with about 360, and the A380 which has around 200 more seats” said Dr. Karl Echtermeyer who is responsible in the group Fleet Strategy and Aircraft Assessment department at Lufthansa.
“Just like the Airbus A380, the 747-8I will be a so-called three-litre (consumption per passenger/100km) aircraft”, he went on to say.
“Large jets are definitely a niche market. Since the A380 was launched, there have been nearly 3,000 orders for mid-sized widebodies–777s, 787s, A330s, A350s, etc–and many more in the pipeline. There have been about 400 orders for the A380 and 747, with very few prospects of notable large orders moving forward. After all that debate about the A380 and the large airplane segment, the market has spoken quite eloquently.
As for that large airplane niche, so far the A380 has the lead, but with passenger versions only. The 747-8 is capturing the cargo market,” says Aboulafia.
“I think the first thing to note is that we think both products are tackling limited niches at the top end of the passenger and freighter aircraft market, and so the market for either product is likely to be limited. Our view is that the airlines are likely to prefer the A380 vs. the 747-8 in the passenger market, as it has the clear advantages of being a completely new aircraft versus a derivative.
The response from the airlines that have started to operate the A380 has been very positive, and this may lead to a few more orders (maybe from Japan), but the number of potential buyers is understandably small.
Given that Airbus has effectively withdrawn from the super widebody freighter market for now, this is where the 747-8 will probably see the bulk of its orders, though again the number of potential buyers for a new freighter aircraft of this scale is likely to remain limited.
Given the current economic outlook, the demand environment, and the credit situation, we are likely to see pressure on aircraft orders across the board, not just for these models,” says aerospace analyst Robert Stallard.
Boeing is certainly proud of the success the new, advanced 747-8I has enjoyed in the Boeing Business Jet division. On 30th May 2006, Boeing received the first firm order for the 747-8BBJ jet, and by mid October 2008, Boeing had secured 8 firm orders for the 747-8BBJ from 7 unidentified customers.
Like the BBJ model, its 467-seat passenger sister will also begin to enjoy more success on the commercial side, but it’ll likely never come close to the sales success of its predecessor; the “ageless” 747-400. As attested by launch customer Lufthansa, “it will be a big success” and that the airline will not be the only customer.
With a maximum range of 17,150km (9,260nm) with 100 guests on board, and capable of a Mach 0.86 (econ) 747-8 VIP is a business jet beyond superlatives. It is the fastest business jet in the ultra-large arena, capable of Mach 0.92 maximum cruise speed, making it the pinnacle of business jet excellence.
“With more than 5,000 square feet of cabin space, the new 747-8 VIP jet epitomises incomparable luxury and operational flexibility,” said Steve Hill, Boeing’s BBJ President.
With the 747-8’s order book comprising of 78 firm orders for the highly-efficient 747-8F, 28 firm orders for the 747-8I variant and a commitment for 4 747-8I’s by Arik Air, the programme is in a very healthy position and will only get stronger, period. If nothing else, while the 747-8F continues to sell, the 747-8I will all but stifle A380 orders.
My colleague Robert Luedeman points out a few issues routinely overlooked:
“We’ve often opined that the B747I program was akin to Kaiser Wilhelm’s fleet-not important enough to dominate, but certainly enough to tie up huge resources, annoy the hell out of Airbus, and slurp up some lose orders here and there. Had the B747-8I not been available, it’s likely that Lufthansa would have ordered 20 more A380s than they did.
If you’re a contrarian thinker, as we here are at times, that 747-8I order might have done Airbus some good because it was 20 money losers they didn’t have to build, likewise the orders that Fedex and UPS cancelled.
Following this line, the BA (British Airways) order puts the A380 back in the crapper for EADS because that’s 12 more money losers they have to build before the life support for this turd of a program is discontinued.”
747-8I economics v 777-300ER:
There are no two-ways about it: the 747-8I is a very efficient airplane. Optimised for the 400 to 500 seat market, it is an airplane beyond superlatives offering airlines a very unique, cost-effective, low risk/higher reward approach to modernise their fleets. It offers airlines a very compelling alternative to the A380 should Airbus be trying to pitch that in the 747-8I’s territory.
Whilst the two leviathans are not direct competitors, the 747-8I still offers a more viable alternative to the larger than 400 seat market.
What is stupendous about the 747-8I is that it offers economics and performance that one would expect to see only from a clean-sheet, all-new design airplane. “The Boeing 747-8I is a new aircraft – and not a new aircraft,” said Lufthansa Fleet Managements Nico Buchholz.
Whilst the perceived threat to the 747-8I is the 777-300ER, this is in fact a slight misconception. The two airplanes indeed complement each other, and whilst Boeing did stretch the 747-8I to offer better seat/mile costs compared to the 777-300ER in part, the 747 remains in a class of its own.
With 467 seats in a Boeing ruled tri-class arrangement, the 747-8I offers 102 more seats with a 5% reduction in seat/mile costs over the 777-300ER. Further, the 747-8I is capable of a range of 8,000nm at Mach 0.86, compared to 7,930nm at Mach 0.84 for the 777-300ER.
However, due to its twin-engine efficiency, the 777-300ER offers around 20% lower trip costs than the new 747. Whilst the 747 does boast a 0.27m wider cabin, the 777-300ER offers 7,120 cubic feet of volumetric cargo against the -8I’s 5,705 cubic feet. This means the 777-300ER can carry an additional pallet and 4 additional LD3’s a Boeing ruled typical cargo layout.
“The 747-8I, on the other hand, looks on paper to be an aircraft that will find its market from the existing 747 customer base whereas the A380’s early customers have already been extensively cherry-picked.
What’s left on the respective trees for each manufacturer is probably a very accurate reflection of the relative merits of their two different approaches as airlines on the one hand grow into the 747-8I while on the other, a small but select number gamble big on the unproven A380, which certainly has more in common with a white elephant than a spruce goose,” says McVitie.
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6th November 2008, 07:45 PM
both think the 748 is a great plane.
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