QF to announce CBR-DRW route from Feb 2010.

[Steve Jones]

The reason for 734 PER-CBR is the fact they have more J class seats - the reason most 737s from CBR are 734s. They are 73H outbound because the high altitude of CBR Airport means that a 734 has loading issues in warmer weather on departure from CBR.

I'm sure QF would run a 734 CBR-PER too if they could without impacting on loads.

[Jarden S]

Also Jetstar not serve Canberra. They could start services to OOL and even CNS from CBR. I am sure the market can handle 2 flights a week each to start with.

[Kain C]

Originally Posted by Steve Jones

The reason for 734 PER-CBR is the fact they have more J class seats - the reason most 737s from CBR are 734s. They are 73H outbound because the high altitude of CBR Airport means that a 734 has loading issues in warmer weather on departure from CBR.

I'm sure QF would run a 734 CBR-PER too if they could without impacting on loads.

I assume the above is why CBR-DRW is also 73H and not 734? CBR-DRW is 45km longer than than CBR-PER (Great Circle).

[Gareth U]

Andrew

The demand IS there for peak season flights MEL-DRW-MEL on high demand days. At the moment high yield pax have to travel via SYD, BNE or ADL. By reintroducing direct MEL-DRW in the peak season on peak days it would open more seats on services ex SYD, BNE or ADL and lessen the need for widebodies to DRW over the dry season.

Are you suggesting there exists no high yield market at all MEL-DRW? Not enough to warrant select additional flights over the peak season?

I found your post quite condescending. I said compliment Jetstar. I was not suggesting that JQ does not serve MEL-DRW-MEL well.

[Gareth U]

Andrew I was never suggesting that Jetstar should exit the market.

I was merely suggesting that there does exist a sizable amount of high-yield customers MEL-DRW who now travel on services through SYD, BNE and ADL. The amount of MEL connectors on the QF754 (ex-ADL) and QF846 (ex-SYD) is considerable to say the least. Limited additional QF flights in the peak season would relieve services ex other ports, as well as Jetstar's services.

I would like to point out that Qantas still carries, and makes money from, lower-yielding customers. Jetstar simply does not have that market all to themselves.

Jetstar is the appropriate model for the MEL-DRW route, I never suggested otherwise. Please stop being so defensive.

[Kain C]

Originally Posted by Andrew

And the yield is not...

I make it 5 words, not 4!

And are they the same market analysis teams that despite JQ operating 6 service per day on HBA-MEL in April (which had 83.4% load factor), drop to only 4 services per day for peak season in December despite HBA-MEL being pretty much the only growing major route in the country (averaging over 8% compared with last year)! And then announcing a massive 3 per week increase (which is actually still a decrease compared with what they have operated other years) claiming to be saving the day! Or what about HBA-BNE where DJ have had fewer than 10 available seats on several days over Christmas/New Year for over two months in advance, and yet still refusing to put more on becuase they don't think it is viable?

[Kain C]

Well I guess that's it. It's not that the demand is not there, it is the fact that there aren't any assets available to operate additional services. It's not exactly practical to ring up Airbus a couple of months in advance and get them to send a new A320 to you, and for you to hire and train crew and find a spot to park the aircraft etc. But you would think that given that in each of the last few years, the available seats have been no where near sufficient to/from HBA over Dec/Jan that for next year at least something can be worked out in advance to put a halt to this farsical situation that arises every year. Surely all those long A321s flying half full to DRW in wet season at this time isn't optimal either. Couldn't some of these be downgraded to
A320, and have HBA-MEL upgraded to A321 on some services at least? Or what about all those QF 734s that don't operate to CBR over Dec/Jan when it is holidays. Some of those could operate additional MEL-HBA for sure?

Before JQ started in 2004, QF had systematic structres in place whereby they operated an additional daily HBA-MEL and HBA-SYD for Dec-Jan (sometimes Dec-Mar). Why can't JQ have systematic structures in place too? Give or take a month, Tasmania has its high season from Oct-Mar, while Queensland has its high season from Apr-Sep. So why can't JQ schedule some A321 services to Tasmania from Oct-Mar, and to Queensland from Apr-Sep, with A320s operating the same flights in the repective low season? That way, JQ are responding to demand, rather than having constant capacity on all sectors all year round, which results in under-capacity for high season, and over-capacity for low season!

[Jarden S]

They could do with more aircraft it seems. When is the next A320 due and is it for Domestic, NZ or Singapore operations?

[Kain C]

I'll deal with this in order. Firstly, I'm not just having a go at JQ. Fact is, compared with Dec-Jan 08-09, the Dec-Jan 09-10 HBA-MEL schedule is down by a daily TT 320 and a daily DJ 737. JQ will offer the same number of seats as last time. For a route that is not only one of the fastest growing, but one of the only routes that is growing in pax consistently this year, a reduction of two daily services for peak season will (in my opinion) result in yet another of these farsical situations where every available seat is sold for several days in a row, effectively cutting Hobart off from the mainland.

Secondly, 330 metal (even though it's mostly plastic isn't it?) would be very welcome at HBA over Dec/Jan, even if just on selected days.

Thirdly, I find a statement from JQ claiming to be increasing HBA-MEL by 3 per week misleading really; given the fact that in April 09 they operated up to 6 daily HBA-MEL, yet for peak season they operate just 4 daily with a 5th extra 3 days per week only added close to the last minute. So they drop 10 services, then add 3 back later and claim to have given a nett increase!

Fourthly, why does Feb miss out on these extra 3 services per week. Feb actually has a higher number of passengers per day on average than March; it is just because Feb has 28 days compared with March which has 31, that March results in higher total pax. Plus I would say Feb has more high demand days with events such as international cricket matches, regatta, international triathlon, wooden boat festival etc.

Fifthly, this is all just HBA-MEL. Don't get me started on HBA-BNE which had 8 DJ 737 services per week last summer (plus a daily LST-BNE E70), only for this year to be downgraded to a daily DJ E90 on HBA-BNE and zero DJ LST-BNE! At least the 3 extra JQ LST-BNE will help slightly.

Finally, as for comparing the market from 5 years ago; Tasmania always has and always will peak in Dec-Jan. It would thus make sense to me to then offer maximum seats in these periods, and minimum seats in the lowest periods to maximise the return from this small piece of pie. But, if it turns out that this action would result in a smaller nett profit for the whole pie than some other distrubution, then I guess the situation is just counter-intuituve. But, for the average person to continually see all seats sold over the busiest period, only for more seats to be cut for next time, it will always seem the wrong thing to do!

[Jarden S]

Its not just in Tasmania that airline services have had cutbacks. Its right accross Australia mainly caused by the GFC Qantas did major reductions in operations from July 2008 they did a 5% cut in flights and earlier this year flights got cut back even more. SYD, MEL and BNE have lost heaps of capacity both Internationaly and Domesticaly. This is how Tiger has been able to start operations to SYD because of other airlines have given up their landing slots. Before the GFC there were not enough slots available at SYD for Tiger to start a reasonable schedule with.